Not all top draft picks shine right out of the gate. In the PBA, where expectations are sky-high for first-overall selections, rookie years can make or break a narrative. But here’s the twist—just because a rookie had a rough start doesn’t mean they were destined for failure.
This blog takes a deep dive into the top picks who stumbled during their debut seasons. From underwhelming stats to injuries or simply being overshadowed by veterans, we’ll explore what went wrong and how some of these players managed to rewrite their stories. After all, a bad rookie year doesn’t define a career—sometimes, it’s just the beginning of an unexpected journey.
PARDONED | 2000 PBA DRAFT – FIRST ROUND
Second-pick overall Marc Victoria (2.0ppg and 1.3rpg) only played in nine games that season. Third-pick overall Dino Aldeguer (1.3ppg and 0.4apg) was left unsigned by Purefoods and rode Alaska's bench for most of the 2000 PBA season. Erwin Velez (2.0ppg), the draft's fourth pick overall, had it worse when Mobiline left him unsigned, and then, he had to wait for a season and played one game in his rookie year and one game in his final season.
And we're going to give them a pass.
Perceived as the worst draft class ever, the 2000 PBA Draft had to compete with that season's big-time rookie free agents. The year that had Paolo Mendoza as the top pick is also the year Jayjay Helterbrand, Rudy Hatfield, Dondon Hontiveros, Mick Pennisi, Davonn Harp, Jimwell Torion, Lordy Tugade, Junthy Valenzuela, Wynne Arboleda, and Tony Dela Cruz, among others made their debut. You can't also discount the MBA free agents, as well as the direct hires from the previous season. Of the ten players picked in the first round, only 60 percent of them were able to play in the league that season with Patrick Madarang and Randy Lopez missing out on the PBA experience in its entirety.
10 | REUBEN DELA ROSA
1996 PBA DRAFT | PICK 3 | PUREFOODS
41 GAMES | 2.6PPG - 1.3RPG - 0.5APG
Reuben Dela Rosa may be considered one of the MBA's 25 Greatest Players, but he never lived up to the hype of being a third-overall pick in the PBA. Entering the league with impressive credentials, having played for the Mapua Cardinals in college and showing promise as part of the PBL’s Stag Pale Pilsen, he was drafted by Purefoods after Rodney Santos. Used sparingly during his rookie year, he averaged just 2.6 points and 1.3 rebounds per game. Ultimately, Dela Rosa’s PBA stint remains a case of unfulfilled potential, a footnote in what could have been a much brighter career.
9 | OMANZIE RODRIGUEZ
2002 PBA DRAFT | PICK 3 | STA. LUCIA
23 GAMES | 1.9PPG - 2.0RPG - 0.4APG
Known as "The Human Eraser," Omanzie Rodriguez earned a reputation for his elite rim protection and hustle, making him a top prospect for the PBA. However, his transition from the MBA to the PBA proved disappointing. Selected third overall by Sta. Lucia in the 2002 PBA Draft, Rodriguez joined a team already stacked with defensive stalwarts Dennis Espino and Marlou Aquino. In his lone season with the Realtors, Rodriguez averaged just 1.9 points and 2.0 rebounds in 23 games. He was then shipped to Air21 and became a journeyman right after. Unfortunately, a player so dominant in the MBA and in the NCAA with the Mapua Cardinals couldn't carry over that success to the PBA, making his stint a major "what could have been."
8 | ELMER ESPIRITU
2010 PBA DRAFT | PICK 4 | ALASKA (FROM TNT)
17 GAMES | 1.9PPG - 1.9RPG - 0.2APG
Elmer Espiritu entered the PBA with high expectations as the 4th overall pick in the 2010 Draft. Known for his electrifying dunks and athleticism during his UAAP days with UE, Alaska believed Espiritu could bring that same excitement and versatility when they traded Larry Fonacier to Talk N Text for the right to acquire him. Unfortunately, his rookie season with Alaska was underwhelming. Limited to just 4.2 minutes per game across 9 appearances, Espiritu struggled to find a role in a stacked Aces lineup, averaging only 0.6 points and 0.3 assists. While his playing time increased when he was traded to Air21, Espiritu never truly lived up to the potential expected of a top-5 pick.
7 | JACK TANUAN
1988 PBA DRAFT | PICK 1 | PUREFOODS
21 GAMES | 2.6PPG - 2.2RPG - 0.2APG
Black Jack Tanuan’s career trajectory makes him a classic example of a player who struggled early on but found his niche later in his career. Picked ahead of Ronnie Magsanoc in the 1988 PBA Draft, Tanuan's rookie season was overshadowed by injuries, limited playing time, and competition within a stacked Purefoods roster. Sharing the frontcourt with veterans like four-time MVP Ramon Fernandez and later two-time MVP Abet Guidaben, along with the emergence of direct-hire rookies Alvin Patrimonio, Jerry Codinera, and Jojo Lastimosa, left little room for Tanuan to develop or shine. Though his rookie averages of 2.6 points and 2.2 rebounds per game were lackluster for a top pick, Tanuan eventually became a serviceable journeyman in the league. His breakout moment came in 1991 when he averaged 11.6 points with the Swift Mighty Meaties.
6 | REY GUEVARRA
2010 PBA DRAFT | PICK 3 | AIR21
29 GAMES | 2.7PPG - 1.2RPG - 0.2SPG
Rey Guevarra’s selection as the 3rd overall pick in the 2010 PBA Draft was met with high expectations due to his athleticism and potential as a two-way player. That said, he is also the third rookie selected by Air21 after Noy Baclao became their first and Rabeh Al-Hussaini as their second. While he had brief flashes of brilliance, Guevarra's rookie season with Air21 fell short of expectations. Guevarra carved out a niche as a Slam Dunk Contest legend, winning the event five times between 2014 and 2019. However, as a player, his lack of significant on-court impact and inability to fulfill his draft-day promise solidified his status as one of the more underwhelming top picks in league history.
5 | JAMES FORRESTER
2013 PBA DRAFT | PICK 4 | GINEBRA (FROM BARAKO BULL)
10 GAMES | 1.3PPG - 1.2RPG - 0.2SPG
Nicknamed "Air Canada" for his athleticism and leaping ability, James Forrester entered the league with much promise as the 4th overall pick in the 2013 PBA Draft. However, his rookie campaign with Barangay Ginebra San Miguel was underwhelming, with averages of just 1.3 points and 1.2 rebounds over 10 games. Forrester then became a journeyman, bouncing between teams, with career averages of 1.4 points and 0.9 rebounds per game over three seasons.
4 | ONCHIE DELA CRUZ
1985 PBA DRAFT | PICK 2 | TANDUAY
32 GAMES | 2.2PPG - 0.4RPG - 0.7APG
Playing behind Willie Generalao, Onchie Dela Cruz had a disappointing rookie year for a second-overall pick, averaging only 2.2 points, 0.4 rebounds, and 0.7 assists in 32 games. Despite his rough start, Dela Cruz eventually carved out a respectable career, becoming known as a hard-nosed enforcer on the court. His later contributions earned him four PBA championships for the Tanduay Rhum Masters and for Great Taste/Presto. However, his lack of significant rookie impact and failure to secure any major individual awards throughout his career kept his early struggles under the spotlight.
3 | ARNOLD VAN OPSTAL
2016 PBA DRAFT | GILAS SPECIAL ROUND | SAN MIGUEL
10 GAMES | 1.5PPG - 1.4RPG - 0.1BPG
Arnold Van Opstal entered the PBA through the Gilas Special Draft in 2016 with high expectations due to his size and experience with the national team. However, he found himself buried in the San Miguel Beermen’s stacked frontcourt rotation, which included MVP June Mar Fajardo and seasoned veterans. Despite winning two championships during his stint, Van Opstal played sparingly, averaging just 1.5 points and 1.4 rebounds in 10 games. After being traded to GlobalPort, his career was further derailed by a meniscus injury, leading to his eventual exit from professional basketball. A mix of limited opportunities and untimely injuries turned his promising start into an unfulfilled PBA career.
2 | ERWIN LUNA
1999 PBA DRAFT | PICK 3 | SHELL
15 GAMES | 1.2PPG - 0.7RPG - 0.1APG
Erwin Luna’s rookie season is often cited as one of the least impactful for a top pick, with averages of only 1.2 points and 0.7 rebounds over 15 games. Drafted as a promising center from Adamson University, Luna struggled to adapt to the PBA’s physical and fast-paced style of play. His limited agility and strength made it difficult for him to compete against the league’s dominant big men. Despite occasional opportunities, he failed to develop his offensive game, which became his most glaring weakness.
While I know that this batch also had direct-hire Fil-Ams like Asi Taulava, Eric Menk, and Danny Seigle, Shell's direct-hire didn't come in until the following season. The Turbo Chargers were gunning for Cebu Gem Matt Mitchell but ultimately settled with Tony Dela Cruz while also acquiring Mitchell's former Shell teammate Rob Wainwright. Ultimately, Luna’s rookie year underscored the risks of high draft picks not panning out in the professional ranks.
1 | MAURICE SHAW
2019 PBA DRAFT | PICK 2 | BLACKWATER
3 GAMES | 0.7PPG - 0.7RPG
Maurice Shaw entered the PBA as the second overall pick in 2019, touted for his international experience and physical presence. However, his PBA stint was marred by minimal playing time and lack of production, managing only three games with averages of 0.7 points and 0.7 rebounds. Despite a diverse career that spanned the Harlem Globetrotters, international leagues, and even an NFL tryout, Shaw struggled to find his rhythm in the PBA. Injuries, age, and conditioning likely affected his underwhelming performance, leading to limited opportunities and a quick exit from the league. His promising draft stock ultimately failed to translate into significant contributions on the court.
This Blackwater pick was so wrong because they could have had a better result with Simon Camacho, the 34th pick of the same draft class. The same can be said with 29th pick Mike Canete, who played 28 games in three seasons with Meralco and San Miguel, and 32nd pick Alvin Capobres, who played a total of four games with the Magnolia Hotshots.