After months of anticipation, the battle for the PBA Commissioner's Cup title could once again come down to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson versus Justin Brownlee.
Eww.
I get the excitement surrounding a potential Northport Batang Pier versus Rain or Shine Elasto Painters finals matchup, but let's not kid ourselves.
Both Northport and Rain or Shine still have a lot to prove when it comes to winning championships.
As Fernando Poe, Jr. would have it, "Marami pa silang kakaining bigas."
Some have likened the Northport Batang Pier to "The Introvoys"—a reference to the '90s OPM pogi rock band—or Filipino teams in the group stages of DOTA 2's The International—hopeful but untested on the big stage.
The reality is, they need time to properly develop before we start celebrating their success.
All eyes are on Northport, mainly because, unlike Rain or Shine—a scrappy squad of young talents led by Yeng Guiao in a non-SMC, somewhat non-MVP franchise—they need this win to shed their farm team reputation. Critics love to say that Northport's success is tied to the SMC system, but let’s not forget they’re up against a championship-driven Ginebra squad with a deep, battle-tested eight-man rotation led by Tim F'N Cone. I’ve said before that Ginebra needs to rest Brownlee, with him pulling double duty as our Gilas Pilipinas go-to guy, but there is a reason why he’s considered one of the top five imports in PBA history.
Also, the difference between Northport and Ginebra’s depth is glaring. If Northport had an LA Tenorio-caliber player, he’d be starting. Ginebra has the luxury of keeping Tenorio on the bench because they can rely on Scottie Thompson and RJ Abarrientos at the point, and not to mention they still have Tenorio and Nard Pinto in their lineup. Meanwhile, Bonnie Tan can only wish he had someone like Jio Jalalon to help slow down Thompson and Abarrientos. Yes, Evan Nelle and Fran Yu have emerged with the injury to Jalalon, but these guards face tough times especially if Arvin Tolentino struggles.
Cone has the defensive schemes to shut Arvin Tolentino down, and Northport quickly spirals into panic mode.
Beyond Brownlee, Thompson, Tenorio, Pinto, and Abarrientos, Ginebra boasts a deep rotation that includes Japeth Aguilar, Troy Rosario, Maverick Ahanmisi, Ralph Cu, and Jamie Malonzo, with Jeremiah Gray also making his return. In contrast, Northport’s bench is largely made up of untested rookies and former SMC castoffs. Kadeem Jack brings relentless energy, but for them to avoid a sweep, Joshua Munzon and Will Navarro need to step up in a big way.
After unearthing Jhonard Clarito, Yeng Guiao has found another hidden gem in Adrian Nocum, adding to his blue-collar squad that mirrors his old Red Bull team—stacked with hungry twenty-somethings before SMC eventually scooped them up. With Santi Santillan, Gian Mamuyac, Andrei Caracut, Anton Asistio, Caelan Tiongson, and Felix Lemetti in the mix, Rain or Shine has been leveling up with every playoff game. However, only Gabe Norwood and Beau Belga bring PBA championship experience to the team.
Meanwhile, TNT just captured a title with RHJ leading the charge. Sure, TNT will miss Jayson Castro for the rest of the 2024-25 PBA season, but like Ginebra, they have the championship experience to handle an upstart Rain or Shine team.
Looking at the first 20 conferences in PBA history and the last 20 conferences before the current one, there’s a clear pattern of dominance among a select group of teams. The key difference? The Pioneer Era was defined by the Crispa-Toyota rivalry, while today's landscape is shaped by the ongoing battle between San Miguel Corporation’s powerhouse squads and the Manny V. Pangilinan-backed teams.
TOYOTA VERSUS CRISPA | PBA’S FIRST 20 CONFERENCES
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TOYOTA VERSUS CRISPA FINAL SHOWDOWNS | 10 |
CRISPA VERSUS NON-TOYOTA FINAL SHOWDOWNS | 4 |
TOYOTA VERSUS NON-CRISPA FINAL SHOWDOWNS | 6 |
NON-CRISPA VERSUS NON-TOYOTA FINAL SHOWDOWNS | 0 |
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SMC VERSUS MVP | PBA’S LAST 20 CONFERENCES (STARTING FROM THE 2024-25 PBA GOVERNORS’ CUP)
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SMC VERSUS MVP FINAL SHOWDOWNS | 12 |
SMC VERSUS SMC FINAL SHOWDOWNS | 5 |
MVP VERSUS MVP FINAL SHOWDOWNS | 0 |
SMC VERSUS NON-SMC/MVP FINAL SHOWDOWNS | 2 (A/B) |
MVP VERSUS NON-SMC/MVP FINAL SHOWDOWNS | 0 |
NON-SMC VERSUS NON-MVP FINAL SHOWDOWNS | 1 (C) |
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A | 2018 PBA GOVERNORS’ CUP | MAGNOLIA DEFEATED ALASKA
B | 2022-23 PBA COMMISSIONER’S CUP | GINEBRA DEFEATED BAY AREA
C | 2016 PBA COMMISSIONER’S CUP | RAIN OR SHINE DEFEATED ALASKA
It's tough to frame it purely as SMC vs. MVP when it comes to chasing championships since TNT and Meralco have been carrying the load while NLEX struggles to keep up. And if you really break it down, Meralco only has one title to its name—and after that breakthrough, they couldn’t even crack the semis.
But the series is far from over. Jayson Castro's injury could shake up TNT’s rotation, making things a little easier for Rain or Shine to put up a fight. And let’s not write off Northport just yet—they may be up against Ginebra, but it’s not an impossible task. After all, the Kings are entering this conference on a four-conference title drought, which means they’re not as invincible as they once were.
The last time two non-SMC, non-MVP teams faced off in the finals was in the 2016 PBA Commissioner's Cup, when Rain or Shine battled Alaska—nearly a decade ago. For the last 20 conferences, either SMC or MVP has had a seat at the championship table.
Will this be the conference that breaks the trend? Or will history repeat itself once again?