The race for the final quarterfinal slot in the 2024-25 PBA Commissioner’s Cup is nothing short of chaotic, with four teams potentially impacted by the outcomes of the last few elimination-round games.
The San Miguel Beermen, NLEX Road Warriors, Magnolia Hotshots, and Rain or Shine Elasto Painters all find themselves intertwined in a web of possible scenarios that make this one of the most dramatic playoff races in recent memory.
Let’s start things off with the mighty San Miguel Beermen, who have been a fixture in the PBA quarterfinals for nearly a decade. Because they love to spend money on their imports, they find themselves in an unfamiliar and precarious position, that could also endanger June Mar Fajardo's ninth MVP win. With a 5-7 win-loss record, they are clinging to the slimmest of hopes. For San Miguel to advance, they need two things to happen: the NLEX Road Warriors must lose to Hong Kong Eastern, and the Magnolia Hotshots must fall to the Meralco Bolts.
If both of those results pan out, San Miguel’s superior quotient will give them the right to fight for the last playoff spot.
The current situation in itself is the bizarro world for San Miguel fans. The Beermen haven’t missed the playoffs since the 2015 Commissioner’s Cup when their season unraveled after an 0-4 start under import Ronald Roberts. Fabled SMB import Arizona Reid replaced Roberts but couldn’t salvage the campaign. A similar fate now looms unless divine intervention comes to their rescue.
But if they make the playoff do-or-die, what will happen to them?
Malik Pope?
Ugh.
The NLEX Road Warriors, sitting on a slightly better footing, hold a vital piece in this playoff puzzle. A win against Hong Kong Eastern guarantees them the seventh seed, eliminating San Miguel and the chance to get either Magnolia or Rain or Shine out in the process. But a loss opens the door for chaos, dragging themselves and the other contenders into quotient calculations and possible tiebreakers.
NLEX’s recent performances suggest they have what it takes to clinch this all-important game, but Hong Kong Eastern is no pushover, making this matchup a must-watch.
The fact that Eastern lost their last match to Magnolia meant the last thing they want is to enter the playoffs with two consecutive losses.
Magnolia’s situation is equally as precarious. Even if they win against Meralco, their fate isn’t entirely in their hands. If NLEX also wins their game, it will be the Road Warriors and the Hotshots for the final spot.
Or, it will be Magnolia versus Rain or Shine, if the Elasto Painters lose to the TNT Tropang GIGA.
Rain or Shine has lost four of their last five games. The Elasto Painters lost two Phoenix by two, but their last three defeats are within the seven to 28 range. Sitting on the brink of possible elimination, ROS needs a victory against TNT to get themselves out of the danger zone. A three-way tie between them, NLEX, and Magnolia would elevate the Road Warriors to the seventh spot, to force the Hotshots and Elasto Painters the right to contest the final quarterfinal position.
It’s been a while since powerhouse teams like San Miguel and Magnolia found themselves in such a precarious position, battling for survival. Meanwhile, NLEX and Rain or Shine have a chance to flip the script and rewrite their season narratives.
The last time San Miguel and Magnolia were in this bind was during the 2008-09 Philippine Cup. During the Wildcard phase, San Miguel won over Coca-Cola while Magnolia, then called Purefoods, lost to Air21. In the end, San Miguel was able to snatch the final seat over Air21, to finish the tourney with a semifinal spot.
This late-season drama highlights the unpredictability of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup.
With so much on the line, fans can expect nothing less than intense.
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